So far you have started with an exponential equation and worked out its graph, its asymptote and its values. Real problems usually run the other way. A biologist has a few population counts, an engineer has temperature readings from a cooling part, a buyer knows what a car cost new and what it is worth now. They need the equation that produced those numbers. The good news is that has only two unknowns, so two pieces of information are enough to pin it down. The skill is choosing the order: find from how the values multiply, then find . If the graph levels off at some value other than zero, you also need the asymptote from Transformations of Exponential Functions, and you subtract it off first.
Case 1: the y-intercept and one more point
The -intercept hands you immediately, because . Substitute the second point and solve for . If a model passes through and , then and , so and . The equation is also solved by , but an exponential base must be positive, so reject it. The model is . Roots that are not whole numbers are fine too: through and , , and (a calculator does this as ).
Case 2: two points, neither on the y-axis
When neither point has , write both equations and divide them. The 's cancel, leaving one equation in alone. Through and : and . Dividing, , so and . Then substitute back into either equation: , so , and the model is . Check with the other point: ✓. The ratio of the -values is raised to the gap in , which is exactly the staircase in the figure.
Case 3: a table with a constant ratio
A table is just many points, so the same ideas apply, with two traps. First, is the -value at , which may not be the first row: if gives , the ratio 4 spans a step of 2, so , , and , giving . Second, when the -step is , the ratio is , not . The table below has a step of 5 and a ratio of 1.5, so . You can also keep the ratio and put the step in the exponent, , which is exact and shows the meaning (×1.5 every 5 units). Do not round too early: rounded to looks harmless, but it compounds, and while the true value at is . Keep four or more decimals in , or use the exact form , where is the table's ratio and its step.
| x | y | Ratio over each step of 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 200 | |
| 5 | 300 | ×1.5 |
| 10 | 450 | ×1.5 |
| 15 | 675 | ×1.5 |
| 20 | 1012.5 | ×1.5 |
Case 4: a graph with a shifted asymptote
If the graph levels off at instead of , the model is , and the ratio test fails on the raw -values. The fix is to subtract from every -value first: is an ordinary exponential, so Cases 1 to 3 apply to the shifted values. Suppose a graph has asymptote and passes through and . Shift up by 4: the points become and . So , , , , and the model is . Notice is not the -intercept here: the intercept is . Cooling problems work exactly this way, with room temperature as .
| Parameter | Meaning | Example: |
|---|---|---|
| The value at (when ): the starting amount. | The car cost 32 000 dollars new. | |
| The factor per one unit of . is the percent change per unit. | Per year : about 4.4% lost each year. | |
| in | The factor per units of . | It keeps 80% of its value every 5 years. |
| The level the quantity approaches: room temperature, a minimum value. | 0 here: the model says the value approaches 0 dollars. |
Modelling real data with exponential regression
Real data never fit perfectly, and using just two of the points throws the rest away. A graphing tool fits a curve to all of them. In Desmos type the data in a table and enter ; on a graphing calculator use ExpReg. Take a town's population, with in years since 2010: at . The ratios over each 2-year step are all close to 1.08, so an exponential is sensible. Regression gives and : the town grows about 4% per year, and the model predicts about 14 800 people for 2025 ().
- Plot the data and check the shape and the ratios first. Regression will fit an exponential to anything, including data that are really linear.
- If the data level off at a non-zero value (cooling toward room temperature), subtract that value from every first. Regression for assumes the asymptote is .
- Run the regression and read off and . Interpret both in context: starting amount, and factor (or percent change) per unit of .
- Judge the fit: the curve should pass close to every point, with points above and below it scattered rather than all on one side. near 1 helps but does not prove the model right.
- State a reasonable domain. Predictions slightly beyond the data are fairly safe; predictions far beyond are not. The town model gives roughly 280 000 people by 2100, which no one should believe, because real growth slows as land, housing and jobs run out.